LC: The pandemic highlights that domestic and global supply chains are fragile and subject to disruption. Just-in-time delivery systems work under ‘normal’ conditions, but not under periods of either extreme stress or demand. We have had a few warnings about the fragility of our systems over recent years: the 2010 eruption of Iceland’s Eyjafjallajökull volcano; the fuel protests of 2000, 2005 and 2007; and, the lack of clarity between 2016-19 regarding exactly when and how the UK would leave the EU. I think the current crisis illustrates not just that there are issues with the global supply chain but also with the UK’s domestic manufacturing base, agricultural and industrial policies. According to the Office of National Statistics, the service sector accounted for 80% of UK GDP in 2019, and 84% of employment (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/output/articles/servicessectoruk/2008to2018). Those items that are manufactured are not necessarily the ones that are used directly by households, they tend to be for industrial use. Further, the UK is not self-sufficient in food production; 48% of the food consumed is imported, and that which is produced in the UK requires seasonal workers from the EU to harvest it. With freedom of movement significantly affected by the pandemic, shortages in supply, rather than actual production, have been predicted. Over the last 30 years we have been keen to extoll the virtues of globalisation without fully acknowledging the associated risks. We are now being confronted by those risks.
GO: Well devil’s advocate time. We survived 1939 to 1945 and we have had recessions before. We have never had the maritime, land and air capability and capacity that we have now. I suspect that we will survive this, though we may all be poorer for a while. The ability to rejuvenate global trade, especially globally by the sea has never been greater. In the unjust and unequal world I allude to above I suspect that it is the 3rd world and areas of the developing world that will suffer the most. What will be interesting is to see what the trigger will be that re-ignites our trade and I suspect it may well be herd immunity a vaccination or both. I do take Laura’s point about food. Perhaps returning to the first question the UK’s new threat may be food security. An interesting conundrum for a first world country! I’ll find my grandparents’ ration books.
LC: Don’t’ know that you are being quite as devilish as you think. I agree we will survive. I agree we will be poorer. I agree that parts of Africa and Asia will be far worse off than we will be in Europe. I agree that food security alongside water security will be the dominant concerns across the world (remember when we were asked about water security by a Uruguayan paper a decade ago?) I’m in favour of increased self-reliance, my concern, however, is that the current trend towards protectionism may actually undermine or at least prolong the global recovery.
