Laura Cleary and Graeme Olley worked together at the Defence Academy over a six-year period, delivering Defence Engagement. During that time they fielded a range of questions from students regarding international security, operational commitments, governance and management. Here they reunite to reflect on the impact of COVID-19.
LC: Yes. China has been engaged in a sustained build-up of its military over the last 20 years. This has led to an arms race in Asia, with Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, India and Australia increasing their defence expenditure in order to try and hold China in check. It is also the reason why the Obama administration unveiled its ‘Pivot to East Asia’ regional strategy in 2012.
GO: Xi and China are striving to achieve “rejuvenation”; a policy/strategy that is based on a somewhat erroneous view that China was once a global power with maritime strength and reach. Xi, as all Chinese Presidents, has to face domestic pressure and is not the all-powerful arbiter of all that he surveys as say Kim Jung Un in North Korea. His problem is that a new domestic popular vision of a “rejuvenated” and powerful China has gained traction amongst a significant number of groups, the CCP, the PLA, a new economic elite and emerging middle class and a more aware people, who have travelled internationally. There is a desire to put right the perceived historical humiliation of this once and now re-emerging, great nation. The Submarines fit into a military strategy that will allow China to challenge the US and others not just in the Yellow, East China and South China, seas but globally. For their vision to be realised the economy must, Post-Covid, re-accelerate. To do this the SLOCs must be secure from Africa, Asia and across the Pacific. If China is to emerge as the Regional Power it must be seen to have a Navy capable of operating super and sub surface. Ironically the US re-orientation towards Asia may undermine everyone’s ability to benefit from globalisation. Equally, it may not. It is perhaps going to be the greatest game of strategic risk management of the C21.
