Laura Cleary and Graeme Olley worked together at the Defence Academy over a six-year period, delivering Defence Engagement. During that time they fielded a range of questions from students regarding international security, operational commitments, governance and management. Here they reunite to reflect on the impact of COVID-19.
LC: The international system is marked by competition and periodic bouts of conflict, which may be localised or sometimes global.
I would argue that we are living through a period of intensified competition. Over the last 30 years we have transitioned from a bipolar to a unipolar to a multipolar world. What we are witnessing is a scramble for supremacy between the US, Russia, China and India. Strategic advantage is being sought through political/ideological, economic and military means. Regrettably, a series of actions taken by the US and its allies (e.g. the war in Iraq from 2003 onwards and the broader war on terrorism) have resulted in the US seceding its position of political supremacy.
The more recent trends of unilateralism and protectionism have meant that the US is also forfeiting its diplomatic and economic advantages. Competition is a constant in the international system. It is more likely to spill over into conflict when cooperative and collective safeguards (e.g. alliances, international organisations and the rule of law) are actively and systematically undermined.
GO: Agreed entirely.
The world is however littered with conflicts. Perhaps this is a C21 World War based on the above valid reasons.
The paradigm has changed, and whilst I can envision conditions developing similar to the 1914 – 1945 conflict, given a new global economic recession and the re-emergence of nationalism, I cannot see power blocs that will use conventional warfare on a grand scale to achieve supremacy.
I see a world divided by what I call the ‘triple I’: Identity, Interest and Inequality. Both state and non-state actors will continue to pursue a variety of conflict paths amongst economic and political to achieve their aims one of which will be proxy wars such as Yemen. I am reminded of the concept of limited war, which strove to explain the post 1945 conflicts. Conflict and war may be “world”, “global” or “limited” in academic terms. This serves very little purpose as I have seen too many times just how total war is in Buzan’s centre of the circle if you, your family and your village are the victims.
